If I Only Knew…
By Brad Thomason, CPA
Fitbit stock is down to $5, off a peak of around $48 just after its 2015 IPO. About half of its 50 million registered users aren’t actively using their devices anymore. So says a recent article in Fortune magazine.
One of the eternal sources of hope in the human condition is the idea that if people just knew better, they’d make the right choices. Yet, in large part, human history is the story of what happens when people do something other than what they knew to do. That’s true both at the level of nations, and individuals. Now, I’m no enemy of hope. And I’m a big fan of knowledge and good decision making. But the record is what it is.
The idea behind Fitbit was that it would give you all of this data about what was going on inside of you and you could use that data to make better decisions about sleep, workout, diet, etc. Seems like a good idea.
But here’s the problem: between collecting usable data and actually putting it to use, the collection side is vastly easier and less labor-intensive. Analysis, contemplation, and decision making are hard work. They always have been, and the advent of a new wristband doesn’t change that.
Investing data is the same. There is essentially no shortage of it. In fact, I think you could argue that perhaps there is too much of it. If you don’t put some limits on what you look into, the volume is overwhelming. The number of possible investments far exceeds anything the human mind could efficiently process, even as a full-time job. Profusions of data, in turn, lead to even larger volumes of commentary; much of it of questionable worth and some of it down-right wrong to a degree that’s dangerous.
Simply strapping on a Fitbit won’t make you a more-healthy person. Simply living in a world where there’s lots of financial data won’t lead to better investment results. For both, you have to do something with the data. You have to think about it. You have to consider alternatives. Finally, you have to act on it.
So while technology may make it easier to find out what you ought to do, it’s still up to you to do it. The healthiest persons are those who make it a priority and put in the time and attention to get good results. Same thing with the most effective investors.
When you understand that the data is merely an ingredient, and although a vital part, still a small part of what has to happen to succeed, you realize that having stardust in your eyes over the latest gizmo or newsfeed isn’t going to be what pushes you over into the win column. In any important endeavor. People were staying healthy and making money a long time before any of the modern “conveniences” came along. In the final analysis, they may not actually be that much better than some of the analog choices that were always available.
And none of them, new nor old, will do much good if you get lulled into thinking that simply knowing how to succeed is all that’s necessary to do it.